Opposition gains ground in latest SVT/Verian voter survey in Sweden

The opposition has gained ground in the latest SVT/Verian voter survey, strengthening its advantage in public opinion. At this midway point, the opposition coalition of the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Center Party (C), and the Green Party (MP) holds a comfortable lead with 52.6 percent, compared to the Tidö parties’ 45.4 percent. Although the 7.2 percentage point lead may seem substantial, it does not guarantee electoral victory in 2026, as past governments have recovered from more significant deficits.

For instance, former Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s coalition was trailing by 14.9 percentage points in a September 2008 survey but rallied to win the election in 2010. Governments typically lose support early in their mandates, a phenomenon known as the “cost of ruling.” Toward the next election, support for the government often increases; however, whether this suffices for re-election varies.

The key for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s administration will be to convince voters that its crime-fighting policies are effective, which was the primary concern for the Tidö parties in the last election. Economic issues, immigration, and climate policies will also be vital as they enter the latter half of the mandate.

The question of governance will be especially significant in the upcoming election, with both leading coalitions facing challenges. The Sweden Democrats (SD) demand a place in a future government, which the Liberals oppose, potentially causing internal strife and alienating centrist voters. Similarly, Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson requires support from both the Center and Left parties to form a government, where tensions are notably high. As the election approaches, the Social Democrats will also face scrutiny regarding proposals from the Left and Green parties, a situation that has affected them in past elections.