Sweden opposition maintains lead in voter survey despite political developments

Despite significant developments in Swedish politics over the past month, political opinions remain relatively stable. According to the latest voter survey, the opposition continues to be the largest bloc, gaining nearly 1 percentage point, with a current lead of 7.2 percentage points over the ruling coalition.

No changes in support for individual parties or blocs are statistically significant compared to the previous month. The Left Party has reached its highest support since April 2022, with 8.7% of voters indicating they would choose the party, up 1.9 percentage points from the 2022 general election. Meanwhile, the environmental party, Miljöpartiet, has maintained strengthened numbers in polls, not seen this strong since 2018.

The ongoing budget discussions from the ruling coalition are prominent, but the opposition’s lead is the largest since November 2023. The Left Party and Miljöpartiet especially seem to benefit from the current sentiments.

In terms of support for the Sweden Democrats, it has fallen to 18.7%, marking their lowest rating in over a year, a decrease of more than 1 percentage point since August. Conversely, the Moderates have gained 0.3 percentage points, performing better than their results in the last election. The Moderates are likely benefitting from their visibility as a governing party in connection with the autumn budget.

The voter survey conducted involved around 3,000 interviews with a representative panel and included demographic checks for diverse groups. The question posed was, “Which party would you vote for if the election were today?” The response rate was around 40%.