Iceland’s Independence Party and Progress Party in tight race ahead of elections

Recent polling data reveals a minimal difference in support between Iceland’s Independence Party and the Progress Party, according to the latest Gallup survey. Approximately 25% of respondents support the current government, while the Social Democratic Alliance continues to maintain the highest level of support, garnering 26%.

The Independence Party reported a drop in support to 17%, while the Progress Party is showing an increase, currently at 16%. This marks a significant rise compared to the votes received during the 2021 elections. The chart indicates that the gap between the two parties is within the margin of error, suggesting a competitive landscape.

The survey, conducted from August 1 to 29, 2024, included 10,780 participants with a participation rate of 46.8%. The results indicate a decreasing trend for the People’s Party, while the Socialist Party would secure three parliamentary seats. The Independence Party is projected to have eleven seats, while the Progress Party is anticipated to gain ten.

In this hypothetical election scenario, the Independence Party’s eleven seats would place them behind the Social Democratic Alliance, which would dominate with twenty seats. Other parties assessed include the Renewal Party, expected to win six seats, and the Pirates, projected for five seats, while the People’s Party would receive four seats. Notably, the Left-Green Movement would not gain representation in this forecast.

These figures highlight the dynamic and competitive nature of Icelandic politics, with public opinion shifting leading up to the next election.