Independence Party faces historic lows in Iceland amid rising support for Center Party

A recent poll has revealed concerning results for Iceland’s Independence Party, which is currently showing support of just 13.9%. In contrast, the Center Party has gained a slightly higher backing at 15.3%. Political science professor Ólafur Þ. Harðarson emphasized that these results could mark the worst performance for the Independence Party in its history.

Harðarson noted that if the party were to receive less than 20% in the upcoming elections, it would signify a significant event in Icelandic political history. He attributes the party’s declining support primarily to policy differences between the Independence Party and the Center Party, which has captivated voters with a strong stance on immigration and critique of neoliberal policies.

He pointed to recent trends in British elections as a parallel, where the Reform Party heavily impacted the traditional Conservative Party, suggesting that voters are shifting based on party alignment with their views.

Harðarson urged the Independence Party to reassess its strategy, potentially moving further right to reconnect with voters who are currently gravitating toward the Center Party. However, he cautioned that this strategy could lead to losses among centrist voters and those on the left.

The professor concludes that the present decline in support is largely due to the Independence Party’s participation in the coalition government. This dynamic has made it easier for opposition parties to position themselves as more consistent with their political values, capitalizing on the discontent towards government spending decisions that seem to diverge from the party’s traditional stances.