Swedish government announces increase in fossil fuel reduction obligation while lowering fuel taxes

The Swedish government has announced an increase in the reduction obligation for fossil fuels while simultaneously lowering fuel taxes, a decision aimed at cutting emissions by 2 million tons over the next six years. This move is projected to help Sweden meet EU climate goals, avoiding potential multibillion-euro fines. However, the government has not provided specific calculations or supporting data, and requests for such information from journalists were declined.

While government ministers dismissed opposition concerns about the risk of missing EU climate targets, they emphasized their confidence in the calculations made by officials from the Ministry of Finance. Ministers suggested they preferred the government’s projections over those of opposition figures.

Recent insights reveal that the Ministry of Finance’s calculations are based on scenarios from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Naturvårdsverket), which include two distinct projections: one that shows Sweden just meeting EU targets thanks to the increased reduction obligation, and another indicating that the country may still fall short. These alternative scenarios, both deemed equally plausible by the Environmental Protection Agency, were not acknowledged by the government during their announcements.

In interviews, government officials labeled the more optimistic scenario as the “main scenario,” a term not used by the Environmental Protection Agency, which asserts that both scenarios are equally valid. When questioned about this, government representatives insisted they were not intending to omit any scenario, claiming they only received the chosen calculations from the Ministry.