Norwegian oil and gas production to rise until 2025, then decline sharply

The production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf is projected to rise until 2025, with estimates indicating levels similar to those in 2006. However, after 2025, a decline in production is anticipated, raising questions about the steepness of this decline.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has released its 2024 Resource Report today, providing updated figures on the available oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf—both discovered and potential reserves. The report makes it clear that a downward trend in production is set to continue in the coming years, influenced by exploration activities and technological advancements. Estimates suggest that by 2050, production may drop to about one-third of current levels.

While technological developments and increased exploration efforts could slow the decline, any reduction in investment and activities could lead to a rapid phase-out of the petroleum sector in Norway. This aligns with global expectations for a decrease in oil and gas production to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement.

The report also highlights the importance of continued exploration for maintaining government revenues. It indicates that substantial opportunities still exist in the Norwegian continental shelf, positioning Norway as a reliable provider of energy to Europe. However, there is a crucial need for investment in exploration and technology to maximize output from existing fields.

Moreover, experts emphasize the need to transition skills from traditional oil and gas sectors to renewables, including offshore wind and hydrogen projects, to ensure sustained economic activity and expertise in the future energy landscape.