Sweden maintains high terror threat level despite reduced influence of Islamist extremism propaganda

In August of last year, the Swedish Security Service raised the terror threat level in Sweden to four on a five-point scale. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, disinformation campaigns, and Koran burnings were cited as some of the contributing factors to the deteriorating security situation.

Nearly a year later, the terror threat level remains the same. However, Sweden is no longer as vulnerable to propaganda from violent Islamist extremism, according to the Security Service. When the threat level was raised, Sweden was identified as a legitimate target for violent Islamist extremism. The National Centre for Terror Threat Assessment now suggests that Sweden is not specifically targeted in propaganda in the same way as before, said Gabriel Wernstedt, press secretary at the Security Service.

Despite this, Wernstedt emphasizes that the security situation in Sweden is still serious. He could not comment on whether the terror threat level will be adjusted in the future, as such decisions are made long-term and ultimately lie with the chief of the Security Service.

The threats to Sweden also come from foreign powers. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Security Service has seen an increased Russian risk propensity, particularly when it comes to influencing and sabotaging targets in the Western world and countries supporting Ukraine.

Russia has a dual interest, both due to Sweden’s geographical location and because Sweden is part of NATO. At the same time, Sweden’s membership in NATO has made Sweden safer. However, according to the Security Service’s latest situation report, the threat related to Sweden’s military support to Ukraine has increased.

“We note that it is important for Russia to prevent and complicate support for Ukraine in various ways. There is an increased threat situation when it comes to the production and transport of military material from Sweden to Ukraine,” said Wernstedt. The Security Service also sees that threats from foreign powers and violent extremism reinforce each other. Foreign powers can use violent extremism as a middleman to influence and divide society. Conversely, violent extremism can enhance the threat by using foreign powers.